Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00 Rangers v Kilmarnock estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 9 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' attack +0.399 +15.5 -7.2 -8.3
Rangers' defence +0.543 +11.0 -0.1 -10.9
Home advantage +0.223 +8.5 -3.9 -4.6
Kilmarnock's defence -0.156 +5.9 -2.7 -3.2
Kilmarnock's attack -0.060 +1.2 +0.0 -1.2
Total — 77.7% 14.9% 7.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00 Heart of Midlothian v St Mirren estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.3 -3.2 -5.1
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.199 +7.4 -2.9 -4.5
St Mirren's attack -0.188 +4.3 +0.6 -4.8
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.147 +3.3 +0.4 -3.8
St Mirren's defence +0.001 -0.0 +0.0 +0.0
Total — 58.9% 23.8% 17.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00 Falkirk v Dundee estimate

Falkirk are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.6 -2.3 -5.3
Falkirk's attack -0.121 -4.1 +1.2 +2.9
Dundee's defence -0.042 +1.4 -0.4 -1.0
Dundee's attack -0.028 +0.7 +0.2 -0.9
Falkirk's defence +0.026 +0.6 +0.2 -0.8
Total — 41.8% 27.8% 30.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00 Dundee United v Hibernian estimate

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.7 -2.0 -5.7
Hibernian's attack +0.085 -2.2 -0.6 +2.8
Dundee United's defence -0.081 -2.1 -0.6 +2.7
Dundee United's attack +0.033 +1.1 -0.3 -0.9
Hibernian's defence -0.001 +0.0 -0.0 -0.0
Total — 40.2% 25.4% 34.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 11 Oct 12:00 Motherwell v Celtic estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Motherwell.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's defence +0.607 -14.5 +0.9 +13.7
Celtic's attack +0.596 -13.8 -9.3 +23.1
Home advantage +0.223 +5.4 -0.5 -4.9
Motherwell's defence -0.070 -1.6 -1.1 +2.6
Motherwell's attack +0.062 +1.5 -0.1 -1.4
Total — 12.6% 18.7% 68.7%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 11 Oct 14:00 Aberdeen v St Johnstone estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -2.9 -5.1
Aberdeen's defence +0.178 +4.1 +0.9 -4.9
St Johnstone's attack -0.114 +2.6 +0.6 -3.1
Aberdeen's attack +0.014 +0.5 -0.2 -0.3
St Johnstone's defence +0.013 -0.5 +0.2 +0.3
Total — 50.2% 27.4% 22.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 17 Oct 15:00 Aberdeen v St Mirren estimate

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -3.0 -5.0
St Mirren's attack -0.188 +4.2 +0.8 -5.0
Aberdeen's defence +0.178 +4.0 +0.8 -4.8
Aberdeen's attack +0.014 +0.5 -0.2 -0.3
St Mirren's defence +0.001 -0.0 +0.0 +0.0
Total — 52.2% 27.2% 20.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 17 Oct 15:00 Hibernian v Falkirk estimate

Hibernian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -2.6 -5.4
Hibernian's attack +0.085 +3.0 -1.0 -2.0
Falkirk's attack -0.121 +2.9 +0.6 -3.5
Falkirk's defence +0.026 -0.9 +0.3 +0.6
Hibernian's defence -0.001 -0.0 -0.0 +0.0
Total — 48.5% 26.2% 25.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 17 Oct 15:00 Kilmarnock v Motherwell estimate

Kilmarnock are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.5 -1.8 -5.7
Kilmarnock's defence -0.156 -4.0 -1.2 +5.2
Motherwell's defence -0.070 +2.4 -0.6 -1.8
Kilmarnock's attack -0.060 -2.0 +0.5 +1.5
Motherwell's attack +0.062 -1.6 -0.5 +2.1
Total — 37.8% 25.3% 36.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 17 Oct 15:00 St Johnstone v Dundee United estimate

St Johnstone are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.6 -2.2 -5.5
St Johnstone's attack -0.114 -3.9 +1.1 +2.8
Dundee United's defence -0.081 +2.8 -0.8 -2.0
Dundee United's attack +0.033 -0.8 -0.2 +1.0
St Johnstone's defence +0.013 +0.3 +0.1 -0.4
Total — 41.6% 26.9% 31.5%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Motherwell 12.3%
Draw 18.1%
Celtic 69.6%

Expected score 0.83 – 2.25 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Motherwell.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.647 -15.0 -10.1 +25.1
Celtic's defence +0.581 -13.9 +0.8 +13.1
Home advantage +0.223 +5.4 -0.5 -4.9
Motherwell's attack +0.060 +1.4 -0.1 -1.3
Motherwell's defence -0.053 -1.2 -0.8 +2.0
Total — 12.3% 18.1% 69.6%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

0–2 11.6%
0–1 10.3%
1–2 9.7%
0–3 8.7%
1–1 8.6%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 12.3% 18.1% 69.6%
Dixon-Coles 12.2% 18.3% 69.5%
Elo 17.2% 22.6% 60.3%

Elo 1509 v 1766 (-257 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.