Scottish Premiership 2026/27

Next fixtures

Sat 10 Oct 15:00
Falkirk v Dundee
42% Falkirk
28% Draw
30% Dundee

Falkirk are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.6 -2.3 -5.3
Falkirk's attack -0.121 -4.1 +1.2 +2.9
Dundee's defence -0.042 +1.4 -0.4 -1.0
Dundee's attack -0.028 +0.7 +0.2 -0.9
Falkirk's defence +0.026 +0.6 +0.2 -0.8
Total — 41.8% 27.8% 30.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00
Heart of Midlothian v St Mirren
59% Heart of Midlothian
24% Draw
17% St Mirren

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.3 -3.2 -5.1
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.199 +7.4 -2.9 -4.5
St Mirren's attack -0.188 +4.3 +0.6 -4.8
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.147 +3.3 +0.4 -3.8
St Mirren's defence +0.001 -0.0 +0.0 +0.0
Total — 58.9% 23.8% 17.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00
Rangers v Kilmarnock
78% Rangers
15% Draw
7% Kilmarnock

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 9 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' attack +0.399 +15.5 -7.2 -8.3
Rangers' defence +0.543 +11.0 -0.1 -10.9
Home advantage +0.223 +8.5 -3.9 -4.6
Kilmarnock's defence -0.156 +5.9 -2.7 -3.2
Kilmarnock's attack -0.060 +1.2 +0.0 -1.2
Total — 77.7% 14.9% 7.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 10 Oct 15:00
Dundee United v Hibernian
40% Dundee United
25% Draw
34% Hibernian

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.7 -2.0 -5.7
Hibernian's attack +0.085 -2.2 -0.6 +2.8
Dundee United's defence -0.081 -2.1 -0.6 +2.7
Dundee United's attack +0.033 +1.1 -0.3 -0.9
Hibernian's defence -0.001 +0.0 -0.0 -0.0
Total — 40.2% 25.4% 34.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 11 Oct 12:00
Motherwell v Celtic
13% Motherwell
19% Draw
69% Celtic

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to Motherwell.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's defence +0.607 -14.5 +0.9 +13.7
Celtic's attack +0.596 -13.8 -9.3 +23.1
Home advantage +0.223 +5.4 -0.5 -4.9
Motherwell's defence -0.070 -1.6 -1.1 +2.6
Motherwell's attack +0.062 +1.5 -0.1 -1.4
Total — 12.6% 18.7% 68.7%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 11 Oct 14:00
Aberdeen v St Johnstone
50% Aberdeen
27% Draw
22% St Johnstone

Aberdeen are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.0 -2.9 -5.1
Aberdeen's defence +0.178 +4.1 +0.9 -4.9
St Johnstone's attack -0.114 +2.6 +0.6 -3.1
Aberdeen's attack +0.014 +0.5 -0.2 -0.3
St Johnstone's defence +0.013 -0.5 +0.2 +0.3
Total — 50.2% 27.4% 22.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Postponed

Listed by the league without a firm date. The forecast still counts them — a postponed fixture is one that will be played, and when it is played does not change how a season ends.

Sat 31 Oct PP
Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian
32% Dundee United
25% Draw
43% Heart of Midlothian

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Dundee United.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.1 -1.5 -5.6
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.199 -5.0 -1.9 +6.9
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.147 -4.7 +1.0 +3.7
Dundee United's defence -0.081 -2.1 -0.8 +2.8
Dundee United's attack +0.033 +1.1 -0.2 -0.8
Total — 32.0% 25.5% 42.6%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Title race

Celtic 76.9%
Rangers 22.4%
Others 0.7%

What the table says, and what the model says

Biggest disagreement first.

Hibernian 10th projected 5th They have taken 3.0 points fewer than the model expected from the matches played.
St Mirren 5th projected 9th They have taken 3.1 points more than the model expected from the matches played.
St Johnstone 7th projected 10th Their points are almost exactly what the model expected, so this is a judgement on underlying strength rather than on results so far.

Early in a season a projection leans on earlier seasons, because the table is only a handful of matches old. A disagreement here is the model saying the table has not yet had time to mean much — not that either is wrong. How the models work.

What has changed

No club moved by more than the simulation can resolve since 2026-09-21.

The table

As at 2026-09-23 · 100,000 simulations · Adaptive Poisson (Model 6) A6-1.0.0

Club PldWDL GFGAPts xPtsΔ Proj90% range TitleTop 6Releg
Celtic 76 01 144 18 16.47 +1.53 87.5 74–100 76.9% >99.9% <0.1%
Rangers 75 11 84 16 14.51 +1.49 78.4 64–92 22.4% >99.9% <0.1%
Heart of Midlothian 74 12 148 13 11.15 +1.85 58.8 45–74 0.6% 88.8% 0.2%
Dundee 73 13 97 10 7.25 +2.75 46.7 33–60 <0.1% 42.4% 6.5%
St Mirren 73 13 89 10 6.87 +3.13 44.2 31–57 <0.1% 29.1% 10.3%
Aberdeen 72 23 78 8 8.51 -0.51 51.7 39–66 <0.1% 66.4% 1.8%
St Johnstone 72 23 910 8 8.26 -0.26 44.1 31–57 <0.1% 27.9% 10.7%
Dundee United 72 23 911 8 8.67 -0.67 45.0 31–58 <0.1% 32.0% 9.5%
Motherwell 72 23 911 8 8.96 -0.96 45.9 32–59 <0.1% 36.4% 7.9%
Hibernian 72 14 811 7 10.00 -3.00 47.6 34–61 <0.1% 43.5% 5.5%
Falkirk 71 33 69 6 7.13 -1.13 43.1 29–56 <0.1% 23.9% 13.0%
Kilmarnock 71 24 615 5 8.29 -3.29 37.6 24–51 <0.1% 9.7% 34.7%

xPts is the expected points Poisson gives each club over the matches already played, so Δ compares like with like — it is over- or under-performance against the model, not a projection. Proj is the mean final points across 100,000 simulations.

The 90% range is a 5th–95th percentile interval, but its measured coverage is 89%, not 90%. Each club is given a season-long strength offset drawn afresh in every simulation, so a good run compounds rather than averaging out — which is most of why the intervals now cover close to what they claim. They remain slightly narrow: read them as indicative.

Finishing position probabilities

Rows are clubs by projected points; columns are finishing positions. The heavy rule after position 6 is the split. Blank cells are below 0.5% — not seen in the simulation, which is not the same as impossible.

Club 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Celtic 77 22 1
Rangers 22 68 8 1
Heart of Midlothian 1 7 43 20 11 7 5 3 2 1 1
Aberdeen 1 16 20 16 12 10 8 6 5 3 2
Hibernian 7 12 13 12 13 11 10 9 8 5
Dundee 6 10 12 13 11 11 11 10 9 6
Motherwell 5 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 8
Dundee United 4 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 10
St Mirren 3 6 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 10
St Johnstone 3 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 11
Falkirk 2 5 7 9 11 12 13 13 14 13
Kilmarnock 1 2 3 5 6 8 10 13 19 35