Scottish Premiership 2026/27
As at 2026-08-16 · 10,000 simulations · poisson P1-1.0.0
| Club | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts | xPts | Δ | Proj | 90% range | Title | Top 6 | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 4.99 | +1.01 | 88.4 | 73–102 | 79.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2.46 | +3.54 | 43.2 | 29–57 | 0.0% | 23.9% | 13.3% |
| Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2.71 | +1.29 | 47.9 | 32–63 | 0.1% | 46.0% | 6.9% |
| Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3.08 | -0.08 | 54.5 | 40–70 | 0.2% | 71.5% | 1.4% |
| Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.43 | +1.57 | 42.0 | 27–56 | 0.0% | 22.4% | 17.7% |
| Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.24 | +0.76 | 53.4 | 38–69 | 0.2% | 66.5% | 2.2% |
| St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2.78 | +0.22 | 44.3 | 29–59 | 0.0% | 27.5% | 11.4% |
| Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | +0.00 | 51.6 | 37–67 | 0.1% | 62.7% | 2.6% |
| Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4.45 | -3.45 | 76.5 | 61–91 | 19.5% | 99.5% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.73 | -1.73 | 41.5 | 26–55 | 0.0% | 20.4% | 18.7% |
| Dundee United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.58 | -0.58 | 45.5 | 30–61 | 0.0% | 32.8% | 10.5% |
| Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1.75 | -1.75 | 42.9 | 28–58 | 0.0% | 26.8% | 15.4% |
xPts is the expected points poisson gives each club over the matches already played, so Δ compares like with like — it is over- or under-performance against the model, not a projection. Proj is the mean final points across 10,000 simulations.
The 90% range is a 5th–95th percentile interval, but its measured coverage is 88%, not 90%. Each club is given a season-long strength offset drawn afresh in every simulation, so a good run compounds rather than averaging out — which is most of why the intervals now cover close to what they claim. They remain slightly narrow: read them as indicative.
Finishing position probabilities
Rows are clubs by projected points; columns are finishing positions. The heavy rule after position 6 is the split. Blank cells are below 0.5% — not seen in the simulation, which is not the same as impossible.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 80 | 18 | 1 | |||||||||
| Rangers | 20 | 67 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Heart of Midlothian | 5 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hibernian | 4 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Aberdeen | 2 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Motherwell | 1 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
| Dundee United | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |
| St Johnstone | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | |
| St Mirren | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | ||
| Kilmarnock | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | ||
| Dundee | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 18 | ||
| Falkirk | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 |