Head to head

Any pairing, estimated from 2026/27 model parameters fitted on prior seasons only.

Next fixtures

As published by the SPFL.

Sat 22 Aug 17:45 Dundee United v Dundee estimate

Dundee United are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.6 -5.6
Dundee's defence -0.164 +6.0 -1.9 -4.1
Dundee's attack -0.061 +1.5 +0.3 -1.8
Dundee United's defence -0.060 -1.5 -0.3 +1.8
Dundee United's attack +0.024 +0.9 -0.3 -0.6
Total — 50.7% 24.1% 25.2%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 22 Aug PP Falkirk v Heart of Midlothian estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by their defensive strength, and home advantage is worth about 7 percentage points to Falkirk.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.0 -1.6 -5.3
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.158 -4.9 +1.1 +3.8
Falkirk's attack -0.098 -3.1 +0.7 +2.3
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.103 -2.5 -1.0 +3.5
Falkirk's defence -0.023 -0.6 -0.2 +0.8
Total — 31.5% 27.8% 40.6%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 22 Aug PP St Johnstone v Celtic estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 5 percentage points to St Johnstone.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.647 -14.0 -10.8 +24.9
Celtic's defence +0.581 -12.9 +0.7 +12.2
Home advantage +0.223 +5.1 -0.5 -4.6
St Johnstone's attack -0.158 -3.5 +0.3 +3.3
St Johnstone's defence +0.032 +0.7 +0.5 -1.2
Total — 10.8% 19.0% 70.1%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 22 Aug PP Hibernian v Kilmarnock estimate

Hibernian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -2.6 -5.5
Hibernian's attack +0.123 +4.5 -1.5 -3.0
Kilmarnock's defence -0.046 +1.7 -0.5 -1.1
Hibernian's defence +0.041 +1.0 +0.2 -1.2
Kilmarnock's attack -0.009 +0.2 +0.0 -0.3
Total — 51.2% 24.4% 24.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 22 Aug PP Rangers v St Mirren estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' attack +0.542 +21.0 -10.2 -10.9
Rangers' defence +0.481 +9.2 -0.1 -9.0
Home advantage +0.223 +8.4 -4.0 -4.3
St Mirren's attack -0.227 +4.3 +0.0 -4.3
St Mirren's defence -0.046 +1.7 -0.8 -0.9
Total — 80.2% 13.7% 6.1%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 22 Aug PP Motherwell v Aberdeen estimate

Motherwell are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 7 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.5 -2.0 -5.5
Aberdeen's defence +0.131 -4.4 +1.2 +3.2
Motherwell's attack +0.060 +2.0 -0.5 -1.5
Motherwell's defence -0.053 -1.3 -0.4 +1.7
Aberdeen's attack +0.041 -1.0 -0.3 +1.3
Total — 38.3% 26.8% 34.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 29 Aug 15:00 Heart of Midlothian v St Johnstone estimate

Heart of Midlothian are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +8.1 -3.0 -5.1
Heart of Midlothian's attack +0.103 +3.7 -1.4 -2.3
Heart of Midlothian's defence +0.158 +3.6 +0.7 -4.2
St Johnstone's attack -0.158 +3.6 +0.7 -4.2
St Johnstone's defence +0.032 -1.2 +0.4 +0.7
Total — 53.5% 26.2% 20.4%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 29 Aug 15:00 Kilmarnock v Dundee United estimate

Kilmarnock are favoured mainly by home advantage, worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Home advantage +0.223 +7.8 -2.2 -5.6
Dundee United's defence -0.060 +2.1 -0.6 -1.5
Kilmarnock's defence -0.046 -1.2 -0.3 +1.5
Dundee United's attack +0.024 -0.6 -0.2 +0.8
Kilmarnock's attack -0.009 -0.3 +0.1 +0.2
Total — 43.4% 25.7% 30.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sat 29 Aug 15:00 Celtic v Falkirk estimate

Celtic are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 8 percentage points.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Celtic's attack +0.647 +25.2 -12.1 -13.0
Celtic's defence +0.581 +10.9 -0.3 -10.6
Home advantage +0.223 +8.2 -4.0 -4.3
Falkirk's attack -0.098 +1.8 +0.0 -1.9
Falkirk's defence -0.023 +0.8 -0.4 -0.4
Total — 82.6% 12.0% 5.3%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Sun 30 Aug 12:00 Aberdeen v Rangers estimate

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 6 percentage points to Aberdeen.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.481 -13.0 +1.8 +11.2
Rangers' attack +0.542 -12.7 -7.2 +19.9
Home advantage +0.223 +6.0 -0.9 -5.1
Aberdeen's defence +0.131 +3.0 +1.7 -4.7
Aberdeen's attack +0.041 +1.1 -0.2 -0.9
Total — 20.0% 24.1% 55.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

PP marks a postponed fixture, as the SPFL's own list does. It is shown under the date it was scheduled for, because the source has not yet given it a new one. It is still counted in the season forecast — it will be played, and when it is played does not change a season-end distribution.

Estimate any pairing

Including pairings the schedule has not yet reached.

at home v
Aberdeen 20.0%
Draw 24.1%
Rangers 55.9%

Expected score 0.90 – 1.69 — average goals, not a predicted scoreline

Rangers are favoured mainly by their attacking strength, and home advantage is worth about 6 percentage points to Aberdeen.

Show the full breakdown
Factor Goals Home Draw Away
Average clubs, neutral ground — 35.6% 28.8% 35.6%
Rangers' defence +0.481 -13.0 +1.8 +11.2
Rangers' attack +0.542 -12.7 -7.2 +19.9
Home advantage +0.223 +6.0 -0.9 -5.1
Aberdeen's defence +0.131 +3.0 +1.7 -4.7
Aberdeen's attack +0.041 +1.1 -0.2 -0.9
Total — 20.0% 24.1% 55.9%

The first and last rows are probabilities; every row between them is a contribution in percentage points — not league points. They are Shapley values and sum exactly to the difference between this fixture and the reference row — two league-average clubs on neutral ground. Club strengths are measured over prior seasons and do not include this season; the league table's expected-points column shows the other half of that story. Home advantage is worth least to a home side that is already an underdog, because it lifts one side's goal rate rather than both.

Most likely scorelines

0–1 12.7%
1–1 11.4%
0–2 10.7%
1–2 9.6%
0–0 7.5%

Model agreement

ModelHome DrawAway
Poisson 20.0% 24.1% 55.9%
Dixon-Coles 19.8% 24.4% 55.8%
Elo 15.3% 21.2% 63.6%

Elo 1401 v 1686 (-285 before home advantage)

Three models are shown rather than one because agreement between them is itself information. Where they diverge, the difference is a real disagreement about this pairing, not noise to be averaged away.